Contest in Britain – between ‘the rich one, the “boring” one, and Trump’s buddy’ – has felt like a foregone conclusion

School’s out in the US, sleep-away camp has started, and as 4 July falls on a Thursday this year, lots of Americans prepare to take the week off. What should be a pleasant ease into summer is disrupted, however, by the ongoing insanity of the political news: as the swell from President Biden’s debate performance last week worsens, the supreme court makes a ruling that vastly improves Donald Trump’s chances of getting off scot-free for trying to overturn the 2020 election.

New Politico survey reveals 21% of independent voters are less likely to vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 election because of his felony conviction last month

Good morning, US politics blog readers. From the Access Hollywood tape to January 6 , Donald Trump has repeatedly been associated with the sorts of scandals that would have sunk other politicians’ careers, but did not stop his rise to the White House, nor his once again becoming the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee this year. Yet the evidence continues to mount that the title “convicted felon”, which he gained after a New York City jury found him guilty of 34 business fraud charges in May, may make a difference with the sorts of voters expected to decide his November election rematch against Joe Biden . Politico Magazine and Ipsos today released a survey showing that 21% of independents were less likely to vote for Trump because of his conviction, while a mere 5% said it made them more likely to support him.

Recent polls of swing states have showed a neck-and-neck contest between the current and former president. While plenty can change between now and November, the poll’s findings raise the possibility that the election could come down to how small groups of voters swing. Independents are one such group, and if they continue to be turned off by his criminal conviction, it could give Biden the edge.

Biden holds a White House meeting with Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg at 3.30pm. Expect lots of talk about Ukraine and Russia.

The first presidential debate is in 10 days, and the Biden campaign is targeting Trump with a $50m barrage of ads over his felony conviction, to be aired in the days leading up to their parlay.

Trump continues to hype up his pick for vice-president, though he has yet to announce a decision. Ohio senator JD Vance , New York congresswoman Elise Stefanik , South Carolina senator Tim Scott and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum are said to be in the mix, with an announcement likely closer to the Republican national convention next month.

Britain may be chilly, but from Greece to India, people are dying due to record temperatures. The death toll will grow without urgent action

While Britons don jumpers and complain about the unseasonable cold, much of the world has been reeling due to excessive temperatures. India has been in the grip of its longest heatwave in recorded history, with thermometers hitting 50C in some places. Greece closed the Acropolis in the afternoon last week as temperatures hit 43C; never has it seen a heatwave so early in the year. Soaring temperatures in the Sahel and western Africa saw mortuaries in Mali reportedly running short of space this spring , while swathes of Asia suffered in May .

Mexico and the south-west of the US have also endured blistering conditions; it was particularly shocking to hear Donald Trump pledge again to “drill, baby, drill” at a rally that saw supporters taken to hospital with heat exhaustion. These bouts of extreme weather are increasing as the climate crisis worsens . Although the El Niño weather pattern contributed to heatwaves over the last 12 months, they are becoming more frequent, extreme and prolonged thanks to global heating. By 2040, almost half the world’s inhabitants are likely to experience major heatwaves , 12 times more than the historic average.

Some feel limiting US-Mexico border crossings will protect the country, while others say ‘it violates American values’

Democratic mayors, governors and members of Congress from the south-west to the north-east stood beside Joe Biden at the White House, when he unveiled an executive order temporarily sealing the US-Mexico border to most asylum seekers – the most restrictive immigration policy of his presidency.

“We must face a simple truth,” the US president said. “To protect America as a land that welcomes immigrants, we must first secure the border and secure it now.”

President speaks with ex-president Barack Obama during campaign event at Peacock Theater on Saturday night

Some of Hollywood’s brightest stars headlined a glitzy fundraiser for President Joe Biden, helping raise what his re-election campaign said was a record $30m-plus and hoping to energize would-be supporters for a November election that they argued was among the most important in the nation’s history.

George Clooney, Julia Roberts and Barbra Streisand were among those who took the stage at the 7,100-seat Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Saturday night. Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel interviewed Biden and former president Barack Obama, who both stressed the need to defeat former president Donald Trump in a race that’s expected to be exceedingly close.

Dogged by age issue, president, 81, is now highlighting Trump’s many peculiarities, from hair style to Bible sales

Taking a line out of Donald Trump’s playbook, Joe Biden offered his rival a tongue-in-cheek birthday greeting on X on Friday, saying: “Happy 78th birthday, Donald. Take it from one old guy to another: Age is just a number.”

The president then coupled his thoughts with a caustic video sarcastically touting “78 of Trump’s historic … ‘accomplishments” before a Biden re-election campaign spokesperson added: “On behalf of America, our early gift for your 79th: making sure you are never president again.”

Grassroots Democrats seek to make ‘judicial activism’ a driving voting issue, but swing voters have other priorities

“Look at me, look at me,” said Martha-Ann Alito. “I’m German, from Germany. My heritage is German. You come after me, I’m gonna give it back to you.”

It was a bizarre outburst from the wife of a justice on America’s highest court. Secretly recorded by a liberal activist, Martha-Ann Alito complained about a neighbour’s gay pride flag and expressed a desire to fly a Sacred Heart of Jesus flag in protest.

Hundreds of Cubans queue for hours to visit naval vessel as tensions rise between Russia and United States

Where once vast American cruise ships disgorged mojito-thirsty holidaymakers into the crumbling streets of old Havana, now lurks the eerie darkness of the Russian nuclear-powered submarine Kazan.

“It looks like a dead whale,” says Adolfo García, as he queues under the scorching sun. The Kazan is off-limits, but García is hoping for a tour of the second of the four Russian naval vessels that have just docked in the Cuban capital, the frigate Admiral Gorshkov.

On Tuesday, Hunter Biden was found guilty on all three criminal charges relating to buying a handgun while being a user of crack cocaine. His father – the president – was firm in his support for his son, but also in his belief in the justice system.

After Donald Trump was convicted in a New York court last month, rightwing pundits and Republican politicians were lining up to accuse the Biden administration of rigging the justice system for political advantage. Yet now the courts have convicted Biden’s own son.

Jonathan Freedland is joined by Susan Glasser of the New Yorker to look at how the right has decided to spin this latest historical conviction.

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